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The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release its latest Existing Home Sales (EHS) report later this week. This monthly report provides information on the sales volume and price trend for previously owned homes. In the upcoming release, it’ll likely say home prices are down. This may feel a bit confusing, especially if you’ve been following along and seeing the blogs saying that home prices have bottomed out and turned a corner.
So, why will this likely say home prices are falling when so many other price reports say they’re going back up? It all depends on the methodology of each report. NAR reports on the median sales price, while some other sources use repeat sales prices. Here’s how those approaches differ.
The Center for Real Estate Studies at Wichita State University explains median prices like this:
“The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less . . . For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.”
Investopedia helps define what a repeat sales approach means:
“Repeat-sales methods calculate changes in home prices based on sales of the same property, thereby avoiding the problem of trying to account for price differences in homes with varying characteristics.”
As the quotes above say, the approaches can tell different stories. That’s why median price data (like EHS) may say prices are down, even though the vast majority of the repeat sales reports show prices are appreciating again.
Bill McBride, Author of the Calculated Risk blog, sums the difference up like this:
“Median prices are distorted by the mix and repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices.”
To drive this point home, here’s a simple explanation of median value (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median value (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median value is now five cents.
In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change.
That’s why using the median home price as a gauge of what’s happening with home values isn’t worthwhile right now. Most buyers look at home prices as a starting point to determine if they match their budgets. But, most people buy homes based on the monthly mortgage payment they can afford, not just the price of the house. When mortgage rates are higher, you may have to buy a less expensive home to keep your monthly housing expense affordable. A greater number of ‘less-expensive’ houses are selling right now for this exact reason, and that’s causing the median price to decline. But that doesn’t mean any single house lost value.
When you see the stories in the media that prices are falling later this week, remember the coins. Just because the median price changes, it doesn’t mean home prices are falling. What it means is the mix of homes being sold is being impacted by affordability and current mortgage rates.
For a more in-depth understanding of home price trends and reports, let’s connect.
During the fourth quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:
Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business:
“I expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.”
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics:
"Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.”
“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”
These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.
However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months.
In a report just released, Goldman Sachs explained:
“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”
Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:
Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.
When the forecasts of significant home price appreciation were made last fall, they were made with megaphones. Mass media outlets, industry newspapers, and podcasts all broadcasted the news of an eminent crash in prices.
Now, forecasters are saying the worst is over and it wasn’t anywhere near as bad as they originally projected. However, they are whispering the news instead of using megaphones. As real estate professionals, it is our responsibility – some may say duty – to correct this narrative in the minds of the American consumer.
If you’re a homeowner thinking about making a move, you may wonder if it’s still a good time to sell your house. Here’s the good news. Even with higher mortgage rates, buyer traffic is actually picking up speed.
Data from the latest ShowingTime Showing Index, which is a measure of buyers actively touring homes, helps paint the picture of how much buyer demand has increased in recent months (see graph below):
As the graph shows, the first two months of 2023 saw a noticeable increase in buyer traffic. That’s likely because the limited number of homes for sale kept shoppers looking for homes even during colder months.
To help tell the story of why the latest report is significant, let’s compare foot traffic this February with each February for the last six years (see graph below). It shows this was one of the best Februarys for buyer activity we’ve seen in recent memory.
In the last six years, we saw the most February buyer traffic in 2021 and 2022 (shown in green above), but those years were highly unusual for the housing market. So, if we compare February 2023 with the more normal, pre-pandemic years, data shows this year still marks a clear rise in buyer activity.
The uptick in buyer traffic is even more noteworthy considering the increase in mortgage rates this February. The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 6.09% during the week of February 2nd to 6.50% in the week of February 23rd. But even with higher rates, more buyers were looking for a home.
Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow, says the increased buyer activity could continue:
“More buyers will keep coming out of the woodwork. We always see a seasonal uptick in home shoppers in March and April . . .”
If you’re looking to sell your house, seeing buyers still active in the market this year should be encouraging. It’s a sign buyers are out there and could be looking for a home just like yours. Working with a real estate professional to list your house now will help you get your home in front of eager buyers today.
Rising foot traffic is a bright spot for this year’s housing market and indicates that buyers are looking to purchase this year, even with higher mortgage rates. If you’re ready to sell your house, let’s connect.
Are you having trouble finding a home that fits your needs and your budget? If so, you should know there’s an option worth considering – condominiums, also known as condos. According to Bankrate:
“A condo can be a more affordable entry point to homeownership than a single-family home. And as a homeowner, you’ll build equity over time and have access to tax benefits that a renter wouldn’t.”
That’s why expanding your search to include additional housing types, like condominiums, could help you accomplish your homeownership goals this spring, especially if you can be flexible about the space you need. Condos are typically smaller than a single-family home, but that’s part of what can make them more budget-friendly (see graph below):
In addition to providing more options in your home search and possibly your price point, there are several other benefits to condo living. They tend to require less upkeep and lower maintenance – and that can give you more time to spend doing the things you enjoy. Plus, since many condos are in or near city centers, they offer the added benefit of being in close proximity to work and leisure.
Remember, your first home doesn’t have to be your forever home. The important thing is to get your foot in the door as a homeowner so you can start building wealth in the form of home equity. In time, the equity you develop can fuel a future purchase if your needs change.
Ultimately, owning and living in a condo can be a lifestyle choice. And if that appeals to you, they could provide the added options you need in today’s market.
Are you planning to buy a home this spring? Though things are more balanced than they were at the height of the pandemic, it’s still a sellers’ market. So, when you find the home you want to buy, remember these four tips to make your best offer.
Rely on an agent who can support your goals. As Bankrate notes:
“. . . select the best real estate agent for your needs. They will be a critical part of your home buying process.”
Agents are local market experts. They know what’s worked for other buyers in your area and what sellers may be looking for in an offer. It may seem simple, but catering to what a seller needs can help your offer stand out.
Understanding your budget is especially important right now. As Sandy Higgins, Senior Wealth Advisor at Capstone Financial Advisors, puts it:
“Understand your current budget … what are your expenses, how’s your spending, would you need to make changes?”
The best way to understand your numbers is to work with a lender so you can get pre-approved for a loan. It helps you be more financially confident, and it shows sellers you’re serious. That can give you a competitive edge.
Today’s market isn’t moving at the record pace it did during the pandemic. That means you may have a bit more time to think before you need to make an offer. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com:
“In general, you likely have more time to make an offer, although that’s certainly not a guarantee. If you’re on the fence about a home or its asking price doesn’t quite fit your budget, you might want to keep an eye on it, and if it doesn’t sell right away, you may have some room to negotiate with the seller.”
While it’s still important to stay on top of the market and be prepared to move quickly, there can be more flexibility today. Lean on the advice of your agent as you explore the options in your market.
During the pandemic, some buyers skipped home inspections or didn’t ask for concessions from the seller in order to submit the winning bid on a home. Fortunately, today’s market is different, and you may have more negotiating power than before. When putting together an offer, your trusted real estate advisor will help you think through what levers to pull.
When you buy a home this spring, let’s connect so you have the guidance to make your best offer.
You may have seen reports in the news recently saying it’s better to rent right now than it is to own your home. But before you let that impact your decisions, you should understand what these claims are based on.
A lot of the time, these reports are assuming things that aren’t realistic for the average household. For example, the methodology behind one of those reports says that renting is the smarter financial option because of the opportunity to invest money elsewhere. It assumes renters take the money they’d spend on costs tied to buying a home and put it in an investment portfolio.
But here’s the thing – most people who rent aren’t making those investments. Ken Johnson, Co-Author of the BH&J National Price-to-Rent Index, explains:
“One of the difficulties with the rent and reinvest model is many people . . . simply rent and spend the difference. . . . That’s wealth destroying.”
The reason homeownership is one of the best investments you can make is the wealth it helps you build. That’s why there’s a significant difference between the net worth of the average homeowner and the average renter (see graph below):
So, before you renew your rental agreement, think about the opportunity to build wealth that homeownership provides.
If you’re unsure whether to continue renting or to buy a home, let’s connect to help you make the best decision.
If you’re thinking of selling your house, it’s important to work with someone who understands how the market is changing and what it means for you. Here are five reasons working with a professional can ensure you’ll get the most out of your sale.
With today’s housing market defined by change, it’s critical to work with someone who knows the latest information and how it impacts your goals. An expert real estate advisor knows about national trends and your local area too. More importantly, they’ll give insight to what all of this means for you, so they’ll be able to help you make a decision based on trustworthy, data-bound information.
Home price appreciation has moderated this year. If you sell your house on your own, you may be more likely to overshoot your asking price because you’re not as aware of where prices are today. Pricing your house too high can deter buyers or cause your house to sit on the market for longer.
Real estate professionals look at a variety of factors, like the condition of your home and any upgrades you’ve made, with an unbiased eye. They compare your house to recently sold homes in your area to find the best price for today’s market so your house sells quickly.
Since buyer demand has cooled this year, you’ll want to do what you can to help bring in more buyers. Real estate professionals have a wide range of tools at their disposal, such as social media followers, agency resources, and the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), to ensure your house gets in front of people looking to make a purchase. Investopedia explains why it’s risky to sell on your own without the network an agent provides:
“You don’t have relationships with clients, other agents, or a real estate agency to bring the largest pool of potential buyers to your home.”
Without access to your agent’s tools and marketing expertise, your buyer pool – and your home’s selling potential – is limited.
Today, more disclosures and regulations are mandatory when selling a house. That means the number of legal documents you’ll need to juggle is growing. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) puts it like this:
“There’s a lot of jargon involved in a real estate transaction; you want to work with a professional who can speak the language.”
In today’s market, buyers are regaining some negotiation power. If you sell without an expert, you’ll be responsible for any back-and-forth. That means you’ll have to coordinate with:
Instead of going toe-to-toe with these parties alone, lean on an expert. They’ll know what levers to pull, how to address everyone’s concerns, and when you may want to get a second opinion.
Don’t go at it alone. If you’re planning to sell your house this spring, let’s connect so you have an expert by your side to guide you in today’s market.
Charleston, South Carolina is known for its historic architecture, beautiful beaches, and rich cultural heritage. The city is home to numerous museums, art galleries, and historic sites, including Fort Sumter and the Charleston Museum. The city also has a vibrant food and drink scene, with many excellent restaurants and bars. Additionally, Charleston is located in a subtropical climate, which means it has mild winters and warm summers. Overall, Charleston offers a unique blend of history, culture, and natural beauty that can be a great place to live.
Charleston is known for its excellent dining scene, with many restaurants that specialize in Lowcountry cuisine, which is a blend of African-American, Native American, and European influences. Some of the best restaurants in Charleston include:
Husk: This restaurant is known for its focus on local, seasonal ingredients, and its menu changes daily. The restaurant is housed in a restored 19th-century home and has a casual atmosphere.
FIG: Offers Mediterranean-inspired cuisine that is heavily influenced by local ingredients. The menu is seasonal and changes frequently.
McCrady's: Offers a fine-dining experience with a contemporary American menu that features locally sourced ingredients.
Hominy Grill: Offers classic southern dishes with a contemporary twist, which is a casual atmosphere.
Leon's Oyster Shop: This casual spot is known for its seafood, particularly its raw bar and fried chicken sandwich.
The Grocery: This a modern American bistro that serves a variety of dishes, including seafood, steak, and pasta, with a focus on locally-sourced ingredients.
These are just a few examples of the many great restaurants in Charleston. Keep in mind that the best restaurants tend to be busy and require reservations, so it's a good idea to plan ahead.
Charleston, South Carolina is known for its rich history, beautiful beaches, and vibrant cultural scene. Some things to do in Charleston include:
Visit historic sites: Charleston is home to many historic sites, including the Charleston Museum, Fort Sumter, and the Battery. Visitors can take guided tours or explore the sites on their own.
Walk or bike through the city: Charleston is a very walkable city, and visitors can stroll through the historic district, visiting the various houses, churches, and other buildings that make up the city's rich architectural heritage.
Visit the beaches: Charleston is home to many beaches, including Folly Beach, Sullivan's Island, and Isle of Palms. Visitors can swim, sunbathe, or take part in water sports.
Take a tour: Visitors can take a walking, horse-drawn, or boat tour of the city to learn more about its history and culture.
Explore the city's art and culture: Charleston is home to many art galleries, museums, and cultural institutions, including the Charleston Symphony Orchestra, the Charleston Ballet Theatre, and the Halsey Institute of Contemporary Art.
Enjoy the food: Charleston is known for its excellent dining scene, with many restaurants that specialize in Lowcountry cuisine. Visitors can try local favorites such as shrimp and grits, she-crab soup, and fried green tomatoes.
Shopping: Charleston has a variety of shops, boutiques and markets that offer anything from local artisanal crafts to high-end fashion.
Nature: The city is surrounded by lush greenery, and visitors can take a hike or bike ride through the many parks and nature preserves in the area.
These are just a few examples of the many things to do in Charleston. The city has something to offer for everyone, and there's always something new to discover.
Ready to find out about Charleston Real Estate? Visit www.charlestonmetrohomes.com to see houses, condos and town homes for sale.